The Transportation & Logistics industry showed growing signs of recovery during Q2 2026. A faster-than-expected improvement in freight fundamentals, expanding valuation multiples, and continued strategic M&A activity suggest the sector is moving beyond the prolonged downturn that defined much of the past two years.
While trade policy and tariff developments remain an important variable, improving freight rates, tighter trucking capacity, and resilient demand across aviation and cross-border transportation point to a more constructive outlook than many market participants expected entering the year.
Transportation & Logistics delivered one of its strongest quarters in recent years, with every sector posting positive equity returns as investors increasingly gained confidence that the industry's prolonged freight downturn is beginning to reverse.
The freight-sensitive sectors led the recovery. Asset-Based Trucking was the clear standout, with equity values rising 28.0% during the quarter and 65.3% over the past year. Logistics followed closely, returning 26.4% in Q2 and 33.8% over the trailing year. Both sectors benefited from improving freight market conditions as weaker carriers continued to leave the market, reducing excess trucking capacity and allowing freight rates to recover more quickly than many industry participants had anticipated.¹
Strength extended beyond freight. Aviation rose 22.9% during the quarter and remains the industry's strongest performer since inception, advancing 71.3%. Continued consolidation activity and resilient passenger demand reinforced investor enthusiasm for the sector. Marine returned 13.7% during the quarter and 13.8% over the year, while Rail generated a steadier 11.4% quarterly gain and remains supported by its contracted-revenue profile and strategic positioning within North American trade flows. CPKC has been a notable beneficiary of shifting cross-border freight volumes. Its unique rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico positions the company to benefit from evolving North American trade flows.²
These improving operating conditions were reflected in valuation multiples. Asset-Based Trucking experienced the industry's strongest re-rating, with EV/EBITDA expanding to 17.0x from 12.8x at the end of Q1 and 11.0x a year earlier. The sharp expansion coincided with growing evidence that the freight cycle has reached an inflection point.¹
Rail continued to command premium valuations, ending the quarter at 15.1x EV/EBITDA, while Logistics multiples expanded to 8.5x as improving freight demand and tighter market conditions supported sentiment across the sector. Aviation and Marine each finished the quarter at 5.2x, supported by continued consolidation activity and improving industry fundamentals.
As a supplemental lens beyond broad market indices, the Dinan Transportation & Logistics Index provides context on valuation trends among companies relevant to middle-market Transportation & Logistics M&A activity.
Since inception in June 2024, the Dinan Transportation & Logistics Index returned 22.6%, compared to 27% for the S&P Transportation Index and 38.2% for the S&P 500.
The Index currently trades at 9.0x EV/EBITDA, below the S&P Transportation Index's 13.4x, but its 29.8% year-over-year multiple expansion outpaced both comparison indices, reflecting improving sentiment and continued recovery for middle-market companies across the sector.
Transportation & Logistics transaction volume in Q2 2026 totaled 35 deals, down from 41 in Q1 2026 but roughly in line with the 36 recorded in Q2 2025. Volume has remained range-bound over recent quarters, but Q2 was defined by deal quality rather than quantity, with Aviation accounting for two of the quarter's most significant transactions.
Allegiant Travel Company completed its $1.6 billion acquisition of Sun Country Airlines on May 13, 2026, creating the leading U.S. leisure-focused airline with 195 aircraft serving nearly 175 cities and projected annual synergies of $140 million within three years.4 Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico completed its approximately $2.0 billion acquisition of the remaining stake in Cross Border Xpress on May 7, 2026, securing full control of the pedestrian bridge linking San Diego directly to Tijuana International Airport.5
Beyond Aviation, deal flow remained active across Logistics, Rail, and Asset-Based Trucking, consistent with the broader market's shift toward strategic, quality-driven acquisitions that PwC identified in its 2026 Transportation & Logistics deals outlook.3
With the temporary 15% tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act scheduled to expire around mid-July 2026, trade flow dynamics and cross-border volumes remain the most immediate variable to watch in the second half of the year.6 Easing interest rates should improve financing conditions and unlock deal activity deferred from the higher-rate environment of 2024 and 2025. Sectors with structural demand tailwinds, including specialized Logistics, Aviation, and rail-adjacent infrastructure, are best positioned to attract continued investor attention as the industry's recovery broadens.
† The Dinan Transportation & Logistics Index is a proprietary index of publicly traded mid-market transportation and logistics companies maintained by Dinan Capital Advisors. Index composition is available upon request.
1 C.H. Robinson. "Freight Market Update: April 2026." www.chrobinson.com; Commercial Carrier Journal. "2026 Freight Market Outlook: Navigating the Long-Awaited Recovery." www.ccjdigital.com
2 FreightWaves. "CPKC paces all railroad freight gains in latest quarter." www.freightwaves.com
3 PwC. "Transportation & Logistics: US Deals 2026 Outlook." www.pwc.com
4 Allegiant Travel Company. "Allegiant Completes Acquisition of Sun Country Airlines." May 13, 2026. newsroom.allegiantair.com; CNBC. "Allegiant CEO defends low-cost airline plan as Sun Country deal closes." www.cnbc.com
5 Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico. "Completion of Business Combination Process of CBX." May 7, 2026. www.globenewswire.com
6 iContainers. "US Tariff Tracker April 2026." www.icontainers.com