The Transportation & Logistics industry's recovery continued in the third quarter, even as public-market performance weakened. Truckload freight rates and shipment volumes showed signs of improvement, while valuations across the industry's major segments remained above year-ago levels.
Higher fuel costs put pressure on trucking companies and airlines, while M&A activity slowed. The question heading into the fourth quarter is whether improving demand can offset rising operating costs and sustain the recovery.
Sector Performance
Marine was the clear exception to a softer quarter. The sector's index climbed to its highest level in the period shown, rising 26.3% quarter over quarter and 50.4% year over year. Shipping rates also increased sharply. Supertanker day rates on the Middle East-to-Asia route reached about $1.3 million in early October, up from about $30,000 in January.¹ Shipowners demanded higher rates to enter the Persian Gulf, while longer voyages reduced available vessel capacity.¹ Dry bulk rates also rose, with the Baltic Dry Index reaching its highest level in almost three years in early September.²
Asset-Based Trucking gave back the most ground after leading the industry in the second quarter. Its index fell 19.4% from its June peak but remained 30.4% above its year-earlier level. Cass Information Systems, a freight payment processor, reported a 10.1% year-over-year increase in truckload linehaul rates in September (excluding fuel surcharges).³ FreightWaves reported that continued carrier exits constrained available capacity.³ Higher diesel prices, however, added pressure to operating costs, with carriers identifying fuel as their leading business concern in a survey by Bloomberg and Truckstop, a freight-matching marketplace.⁴
Aviation fell 13.7% for the quarter after a strong spring. Fuel was the common theme across the sector's companies. Spot jet fuel climbed back to about $3.65 a gallon in late July after a ceasefire with Iran broke down.5 American Airlines and Southwest Airlines both lowered full-year earnings guidance.5 United Airlines projected nearly $6 billion in added 2026 fuel expense.5 Demand itself stayed firm. American cited strong fares and demand in July.5 After the quarter ended, Delta Air Lines reported record September-quarter revenue and said demand remains strong.6 Logistics also declined, while Rail held roughly steady.
Every segment still trades above its multiple from a year ago. Marine's EV/EBITDA multiple rose to 6.8x, a new high for the chart. Asset-Based Trucking's multiple fell from its June peak to 14.0x, just below Rail at 14.6x.
Middle-Market M&A Perspective
The Dinan Transportation & Logistics Index† held near the top of its five-year range. It slipped 5.4% for the quarter, a smaller decline than three of the four segment indices that fell. Over the past year it gained 26.4%, more than the Logistics, Aviation and Rail indices. For middle-market business owners, the index provides a public-market benchmark that has retained most of its gains over the past year. Over five years, the index has gained 11.0% against 71.7% for the S&P 500.
The index's EBITDA multiple was little changed at 8.3x, up from 6.9x a year ago. That places the Dinan Index's valuation multiple above three of the five industry segments, though well below the S&P 500 at 18.1x.
Public and private signals diverged this quarter. The index multiple held steady, but transaction counts fell to their second-lowest level since the start of 2023. PwC noted at midyear that some buyers were pausing until fuel costs stabilized.7 Steady public valuations alongside fewer deals suggest the slowdown may reflect costs and timing more than a change in how buyers value these businesses.
M&A Activity & Transaction Environment
Transportation & Logistics recorded 33 transactions in Q3 2026, down from 45 in the second quarter and 40 a year earlier.
The deals that did close show what buyers are paying for: specialized networks that are hard to replicate. FedEx and Advent, a private equity firm, acquired InPost, a Poland-based parcel locker operator, for $8.9 billion. FedEx said moving lower-density deliveries onto InPost's network would make its European last-mile operations more efficient.8 Bristow, an offshore energy and government aviation services provider, bought Berry Aviation for $105 million. Berry, a Texas-based government and defense aviation contractor, adds special mission capabilities and long-standing government customers.9
Infrastructure investors moved into the space as well. Funds advised by Basalt Infrastructure Partners, a London-based infrastructure investor, acquired MBI. MBI is North America's largest outsourced municipal waste transportation provider.10 The seller's advisor cited MBI's fleet and terminal network as barriers to entry.10
Outlook & What to Watch
Transportation & Logistics enters the fourth quarter with improving freight demand but continued pressure from fuel costs and financing conditions. Cass expects freight shipments to increase again in October, extending the recovery that began in August.³ Whether that improvement translates into stronger earnings will depend on carriers' ability to offset higher operating costs. For M&A activity, the key questions are whether freight demand continues to strengthen and whether greater cost stability gives buyers the confidence to move forward with transactions.
† The Dinan Transportation & Logistics Index is a proprietary index of publicly traded middle-market Transportation & Logistics companies maintained by Dinan Capital Advisors. Index composition is available upon request.
References
1 Benzinga (via TradingView). "Tanker Rates Hit $1.3M a Day As 9 Shipping Stocks Double in 2026." October 2026. https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:307095eeb094b:0-tanker-rates-hit-1-3m-a-day-as-9-shipping-stocks-double-in-2026/
2 Bloomberg (via gCaptain). "Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Surge on Tight Capesize Vessel Supply." September 3, 2026. https://gcaptain.com/dry-bulk-shipping-rates-surge-on-tight-capesize-vessel-supply/
3 FreightWaves. "Cass: TL linehaul rates up 10% in September, shipment counts remain positive." October 13, 2026. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cass-tl-linehaul-rates-up-10-in-september-shipment-counts-remain-positive
4 Truckstop. "Q3 2026 carrier survey: 40% report lower rates." October 15, 2026. https://truckstop.com/blog/carrier-survey-freight-market-q3-2026/
5 AeroTime. "Airlines revise 2026 outlooks as jet fuel prices surge." July 23, 2026. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/airlines-cut-2026-outlooks-jet-fuel-prices-surge
6 Delta Air Lines. "Delta Air Lines announces September quarter 2026 financial results." October 9, 2026. https://news.delta.com/delta-air-lines-announces-september-quarter-2026-financial-results
7 PwC. "Transportation and logistics: US Deals 2026 midyear outlook." June 17, 2026. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/consumer-markets/transportation-logistics/deals-insights.html
8 FreightWaves. "FedEx execs say InPost deal will boost European performance." February 12, 2026. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-execs-say-inpost-deal-will-boost-european-performance
9 RotorHub. "Bristow Group to acquire Berry Aviation in expansion of its government services platform." July 2, 2026. https://www.rotorhub.com/bristow-group-to-acquire-berry-aviation-in-expansion-of-its-government-services-platform/
10 Houlihan Lokey. "Houlihan Lokey Advises Mr. Bult's, Inc." July 31, 2026. https://hl.com/about-us/transactions/mr-bults-inc-fortress-basalt/
